NBA Draft Prospect Evaluation Model

Tier List Based on 12 Team Dynasty Basketball Rookie Drafts

If you have read my other recent posts, you would know that I have been working on an Excel Code to rank NBA Draft Prospects. After multiple iterations I have finally found something that I am happy with. This model is based on the following:

• Players Overall Impact on the Game

  • Points, Rebounds, Assists, Minutes, etc.

• League Prestige (Level of Competition)

There are still some aspects that you need to account for such as:

• Draft Age

  • A player being drafted at 19 vs 21-22 may not seem like a lot but those are key years of development. I would rank a 19-year-old playing in the Liga ACB with a 55 rating, higher than a 21-year-old playing in the same league with a 70 rating.

• Potential

  • I was going to write physical attributes here, but I feel like that falls under potential. This model can’t account for a prospects potential as I doubt any computer algorithm could.

• The Eye Test

  • Do people still use the Eye Test anymore? I judge most prospects on if they can pass the Eye Test. This is a tale as old as time and one that no one uses anymore.

My rankings will be broken up into four tiers.

• Tier 1

  • 100+ Rating

  • An elite prospect who can change the trajectory of your dynasty team. These players don’t come often, and you need to get them while you can. (Note- I included some of the top end of the draft this is year as I believe Flagg, Harper, & Bailey are all NBA ready guys who will make an instant impact Day 1)

  • High Risk High Reward, do your due diligence on these guys before you sell your future for one of them

• Tier 2

  • 80 - 99 Rating

  • A good prospect with great potential. The scariest place for a player to be is here. You have the highest probability to draft a player with this rating high and them not pan out. You will most likely be using your 1st round picks and maybe even some 2nd rounders to get these guys.

  • The trendline in this graph falls right at the 80-99 range, I use this trendline to compare to the Past 1st round international players to see how the trend line has changed. (Hint. It has not changed much, as it’s only slightly gone down)

• Tier 3

  • 50 - 79 Rating

  • A draftable player who has potential but not someone to take with your 1st round pick. A late 2nd round or 3rd round pick will seem like good value with the chance you’re taking here.

• Tier 4

  • 0 - 49 Rating

  • A draft and stash prospect, someone you don’t anticipate playing on your dynasty team until 2-3 years down the line.

Below you will see former NBA Draft Prospects (Mostly 1st rounders), where I took their Pre-Draft Stats and imported them into the NBA Draft Model. The results are below:

There should be 4-5 players here who jump out at you.

1. Luka Doncic

   1. Everyone knew Luka was good but not many put into perspective that a 6’8 17-Year-Old PG from Slovenia was torching the 2nd best league in the world and ended up as the youngest MVP ever. On this model he grades as a generational prospect.

2. Alperen Sengun

   1. When I watched Al P pre-draft, I did not understand how he was not going to be a top 10 pick. At 18 was dominating the Turkish Superleague but his historic back to the basket style of play made NBA GMs think otherwise. On this model he grades as a generational prospect.

3. Victor Wenbenyama

   1. I saw Wemby when he was 15 and still perfecting his craft. He’s a player you looked at and he passed the Eye Test. At 16 he was playing on the pro team and by no means was he dominating but a 16-year-old getting 17-18 minutes a game in Euroleague play speaks for itself. The teams over there are not trying to develop talent, they are trying to win games, and if a 16-year-old gives you your best shot at that, he’s got a high chance to be great. On this model he grades as a generational prospect, and if you factor in potential he is the greatest prospect I’ve ever scouted, right in front of Luka Doncic.

4. Nikola Topic

   1. A true mystery box being as he hasn’t stepped on an NBA court yet, however he grades as 100+ player. I don’t know how well he will do in OKC but I do know that I want him on my team and will give up a first rounder if that’s what it takes.

5. Rokas Jokubatis

   1. Many people probably thought I would’ve put Killian Hayes here. I still don’t know how he didn’t pan out. Rokas was a 2nd round draft pick to the Knicks in 2021, and is still playing overseas. I was surprised that the Knicks never brought him over and honestly still surprised being as he plays prototypical Knicks basketball. On this model he grades at around 85. Like I said a risky pick because you may have taken him high and he hasn’t even come over yet.

Updated Prospect Ratings as of 02/17/2025